Slipping and Sliding

GUEST BLOG BY TOM BEREND

There are two graphs on the right. The left-hand graph compares GDP in USD for Canada and Korea (source: IMF).  The right-hand graph compares education outcomes, specifically high-school math (source: PISA/OECD).

Korea and Canada are very similar, with small populations and dominant neighbours.  And 15 years ago we were ranked together one-and-two in education.

But Korea followed the path of high-value manufacturing and technology, and they are obsessive about education.  Canada focused on resources and branch plant assembly, plus we let our education outcomes slip downward, year after year.  So today we buy Korean cars and smartphones, and sell them our minerals, cereals, and pulp.

Didn't work so well for us. Our GDP is back where it was in 2010 and dropping fast. Korea will soon overtake us as the 11th largest economy.  In fact, since the IMF numbers don't include our recent currency tumble and widening trade deficit, Korea may have already passed Canada.

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