25% High School Graduation Rate for the Poor
GUEST BLOG BY TOM BEREND, SQE DIRECTOR
Ontario's Minister of Education crows about successful measures to fight inequality and poverty, and boasts about our 83% high school graduation rate. We are the best in the world.
For the poor, that claim is a cruel fiction. The 83% counts only 'fully participating' students' - the ones who are around to take the test. For marginalized communities, the high-school graduation rate is closer to 25%, the rest having already dropped out. True graduation rates should be easily deduced from historical school attendance registries, but educators don't want to look too closely. Poverty advocates have suspected it, but can find no evidence in the education data.
Furtunately for us, three intrepid researchers in Manitoba went the other way around to get the true graduation rate for a poor neighbourhood in Winnipeg. In 2006, Brownell, Roos, & Fransoo took a population-based longitudinal approach, tracking the entire population of students through their health records instead of their education records. Here's what they found:
" ... we used the cohort of children born in Manitoba in 1984 and remaining in Manitoba until 2001-02. Then, for those residing in Winnipeg in 2001-02, we determined where they were in the school system at that time (that is, during what should have been their final year in school) and also identified those who had withdrawn from school. Figure 3B shows this very different reality: only 27 percent of the youths living in the low-SES areas who should have been writing the standards test that year actually wrote and passed the test."
Their data excludes Winnipeg's Aboriginal youths which would likely have lowered the completion rate even further. Toronto has fewer Aboriginals but more immigrants, meaning that it is reasonable to assume we would get the same results in our inner-city neighbourhoods. To fight poverty we need to focus on that dreadful 75% failure rate. We can start by being honest about how our inner-city schools are really doing.




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